SUPPORT FOR SCHWARZENEGGER REMAINS STRONG IN THIRD STANFORD-HOOVER POLL REPLICATING COMPLEX CALIFORNIA BALLOT

Sexual allegations appear to have minimal impact in unique survey that forces undecided voters to choose

Menlo Park, CA; October 6, 2003: In a new poll that replicated the daunting ballot California voters will face at this Tuesday's special election, Arnold Schwarzenegger held his ground and may even have gained support; the allegations of sexual misconduct that have dogged him in recent days appeared to have little immediate effect on his decisive lead. This is the third and final recall survey sponsored by Stanford University's Hoover Institution and fielded among registered California voters on the Knowledge Networks Panel.

In the new poll of 956 registered voters conducted between September 26th and October 4th, Schwarzenegger was chosen by 43% of respondents, compared to 40% in the two previous Stanford-Hoover polls; the analysis is based on response from 702 likely voters and the sampling margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Schwarzenegger's support among Republicans rose from 62% to 72% since the last survey, and he also received "votes" from 20 percent of Democrats and 39 percent of Independents. And comparisons of data from before versus after the misconduct allegations showed no significant change in the level of support for Schwarzenegger.

The poll also indicates that 59% of California voters still favor the recall itself; in the two earlier polls - conducted August 29th to September 8th and September 11th to 21st - support was at 62% and 61%, respectively. Republicans overwhelmingly (94%) favor the recall, while Democrats are increasingly opposed - 68% are against it, an increase of 10 percentage points since the first Stanford-Hoover survey.

The Stanford-Hoover polls are unique because they presented voters with the same choice they will have to make on election day - 135 names, with no option for remaining "undecided."

Among the other major candidates in the recall:

• Cruz Bustamante (Democrat) holds 30% of the vote, compared to 28% and 32% in the earlier polls; but his support among Hispanic voters is down, from 63% in the last poll to 49% in the new one (Schwarzenegger is supported by 32% of Hispanics);
• Tom McClintock (Republican) was chosen by 13% of respondents; and
• the remaining 132 candidates collectively accounted for 14% of "votes."

The Hoover Institution, founded at Stanford University in 1919 by Herbert Hoover, who went on to become the 31st president of the United States, is an interdisciplinary research center for advanced study on domestic public policy and international affairs, with internationally renowned archives. Lead Hoover/Stanford researchers on the ballot study were

• David W. Brady, Senior Fellow and Associate Director of Research, Hoover Institution, Stanford University; Professor of Political Science at Stanford; and Owen H. and Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science and Ethics in the Stanford Graduate School of Business
• Morris Fiorina, Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution and Wendt Family Professor of Political Science, Stanford University
• Shanto Iyengar, Professor of Communication and Political Science, Chair of the Department of Communication, Stanford University

Knowledge Networks is the leader in high-quality, innovative market research. The company's unique Internet platform allows for quick turnaround of results and for the use of high-quality video and audio in surveys.

In conjunction with its expertise in brands, media, advertising, and analytics, Knowledge Networks uses its consumer panel and other resources to provide insights on consumer behavior and opinions. In addition to government and social policy work, Knowledge Networks specialties include media, brand health, segmentation, and research on pricing, product configuration and advertising.